Since joining the A-League in 2020, Macarthur FC has undoubtedly established itself as competitive, consistently challenging for a place in the Finals Series. However, their trajectory has been marked by inconsistency. While they have demonstrated the ability to compete with the league's best, they have also suffered unexpected setbacks, leading to questions about what they offer beyond the football on the pitch.
Macarthur currently sit fifth on the A-League Men table after 17 matches. (Image: Harley Appezzato)
Macarthur FC has impressively qualified for the Finals Series two out of a possible four times in the club's existence. Despite a disappointing 12th place finish in the 2022/23 A-League Men season, Macarthur has had reasonably consistent league finishes, finishing 6th, 7th, and most recently, 5th, marking their worth in the league.
This season, Macarthur has continued in this vein, evident in their ability to compete with the league's top teams. Despite this, on the flip side, the Bulls have dropped points against considerably weaker opposition.
So what factors contribute to Macarthur's inconsistent performances, and are they underestimated by pundits and fans?
By analysing their strengths and weaknesses against each opposition, we can determine whether Macarthur has the potential to be a serious title contender or if they are destined to remain a team with flashes of brilliance that ultimately falls short of its ambitions.
Mile Sterjovski's influence
Mile Sterjovski has significantly impacted Macarthur FC since taking over as head coach in January 2023. Under his guidance, the club has achieved a 44% win percentage, averaging 1.5 points per game, a marked improvement from their previous struggles.
A key factor in this resurgence has been Sterjovski's emphasis on a more proactive, high-speed style of play. He has focused on quick build-up play, encouraging his players to move the ball forward with purpose and exploit opportunities on the counter-attack. This proactive approach and a high-pressing style have injected a newfound dynamism into Macarthur's play.
Sterjovski's tactical adjustments have ultimately yielded positive results. The team has shown a greater willingness to take risks, resulting in improved attacking output and increased goal-scoring opportunities.
Macarthur head coach Mile Sterjovski (left) ahead of the Australia Cup clash against O'Connor Knights last July. (Image: Tahlia Daly)
Why Macarthur FC are being slept on
Macarthur's strong performances, rewarded in their recent Australia Cup triumph, have positioned them as a strong side in the A-League Men. Yet, a sense of scepticism persists among some pundits and fans. This underestimation may stem from the team's history of inconsistency and their perceived inability to sustain consistent high-level performances.
However, a closer look at their current form suggests that Macarthur may be a more serious contender than many realise. Their impressive attacking numbers tell a compelling story. At 31.5, they lead the league in Expected Goals (xG), indicating a high volume of quality scoring opportunities.
This metric is further supported by being second in the league for big chances created (55), demonstrating their ability to generate dangerous attacks consistently. While xG does not paint a complete picture of how well a team is playing, it still provides a positive outlook on the side's ability to create chances in the final third.
While ranking fourth in the league with a goal-scoring average of 1.9 per game is respectable, it suggests that Macarthur may not fully capitalise on their chances. This underperformance could be attributed to a lack of clinical finishing or a need for greater composure in front of the goal. While this is true, the now departed Jed Drew and star striker Valère Germain have a combined 13 goals, which is still an impressive record at this stage of the season. Germain, in particular, is currently equal third in the Golden Boot race.
But this success has brought the inevitable attention from overseas clubs. Austrian Bundesliga side TSV Hartberg recently confirmed the signing of Drew this window. While losing Drew is a financial success, showcasing how they can develop talent from the academy into transfer revenue, he undoubtedly leaves big boots to fill.
With impressive attacking metrics this season and a busy transfer window, is it then Macarthur's defensive capabilities that are letting them down? While clean sheets have been minimal, their defensive record is nothing to be drastically concerned about. With an average of 1.4 goals conceded per game, they possess the fifth-best defence in the league, a respectable position.
Given their impressive attacking output and credible defensive record, it's difficult to argue that Macarthur is overperforming in their current league position. Their ability to consistently create and score goals, coupled with a relatively strong defence, suggests they have the potential to challenge for the title. So what is Macarthur's major flaw?
Macarthur celebrate their opener in the 3-2 win over the Western Sydney Wanderers on New Year's Day. (Image: Harley Appezzato)
Inconsistency
While Macarthur has shown glimpses of brilliance, consistency remains a significant hurdle. A notable trend is their struggles against teams lower in the league table. This season, they have lost to the Newcastle Jets and Wellington Phoenix while drawing with Brisbane Roar and the Central Coast Mariners—all teams currently positioned below them.
This inconsistency can be partially attributed to Macarthur's counter-attacking philosophy. Sterjovski's emphasis on high-pressing, quick build-up play, while effective against stronger opposition, can leave them vulnerable on the counter-attack when facing teams prioritising a more defensive and reactive approach.
Furthermore, squad depth remains a concern. Last season, injuries caused disruption and significantly impacted their performance. This season, injuries and squad depth again remain a contributing factor.
As mentioned above, Drew's departure will result in a significant loss for the club. Macarthur has been one of the busiest clubs this window, with other key departures, including centre-backs Oliver Jones and Dino Arslanagic and young talent Ariath Piol.
Despite these significant departures, they have wasted no time replacing the squad with experienced talent. The key signings of former Tunisian international Saîf-Eddine Khaoui, experienced K-League 2 midfielder Peter Makrillos, and Ivorian centre-back Kevin Boli will be sure to add further quality and depth to their squad.
While the club has strengthened its squad in certain areas, maintaining consistency throughout a demanding season requires careful management. Whether these experienced signings can remain fit and injury-free during the remainder of the season will be a significant factor in this season's performance. Beyond the need for further depth, another intriguing factor is Macarthur's contrasting home and away form.
Last season, they finished ninth on the home table while ranking fourth in away games. This trend continues this season, with Macarthur performing better on the road. Macarthur is currently ranked 7th on the ladder for home games and, conversely, 3rd in the league for away games, which is quite a juxtaposition. While this may be just a coincidence rather than any rhyme or reason, it's an intriguing observation that warrants closer examination.
One reason may be the lack of consistent home support at Campbelltown Stadium, with an average attendance of 4,216 in the 2023/24 season. While this shouldn't affect the performance of the team too much, the difference, however, could lie with the travelling opposition, as teams may find it easier to perform at Campbelltown rather than coming up against a side with more substantial home support (Adelaide United, Auckland FC, Melbourne Victory).
With that being said, to suggest that a lack of home support is the sole, or even primary factor contributing to their contrasting home and away form is a stretch and, more so, an intriguing point.
Macarthur are still struggling to attract substantial home crowds in their fifth season, averaging only 3,786 so far in 2024/25. (Image: Harley Appezzato)
The verdict
Macarthur has demonstrated the potential to be a serious contender in the A-League Men. Their impressive attacking numbers, including Expected Goals and big chances created, highlight their creativity in the final third. Should they be a touch more clinical, Macarthur has the potential to have the best attack in the league. While defensive consistency remains an area for improvement, their satisfactory defensive record suggests they have the foundation to at least compete towards the top of the table.
However, several factors could hinder their title aspirations. Squad depth remains a concern, with key departures this window and injuries potentially impacting their performance significantly this season. Moreover, their tendency to drop points against lower-ranked teams must be addressed.
READ MORE ON FPF
BIG NST NEWS: The Australian Championship: Football Australia announce second tier name and branding
Despite these challenges, Macarthur possesses the talent and potential to challenge for the championship. The signing of attacking midfielder Khaoui, central midfielder Makrillos, and centre-back Boli this transfer window will also help address the depth concerns.
Their high-pressing, attacking style, coupled with their key players such as Valère Germain, Marin Jakolis, and Luke Brattan, will continue to make them a difficult opponent for any team in the league. Whether or not the latest additions to the squad can address their defensive vulnerabilities against weaker opposition and replace Drew's attacking output will be the question on every Bulls fan's lips.
Ultimately, Macarthur's success this season will depend on their consistency, addressing their defensive vulnerabilities, and capitalising on their attacking potential. They could surprise many if they overcome these challenges and emerge as a genuine title contender.
Statistics sourced from FotMob.
Click here to read more of Front Page Football's coverage of the A-Leagues!
Comments