We are five rounds into the 2024/25 A-League Men's season. Bruno Fornaroli, arguably the best goalscorer at Melbourne Victory, has only made two appearances. Patrick Kisnorbo's stance on the striker's game time does not look like it will change anytime soon. Front Page Football delves deeper into the situation to understand why Fornaroli has seemingly been frozen out and what the future could hold for one of the league's sharpshooters.
Bruno Fornaroli has only played 71 minutes in the A-League Men this season. (Image: Brock Pearson Photography)
Melbourne Victory striker Bruno Fornaroli concluded the 2023/24 A-League Men season with 18 goals and three assists. When excluding Finals Series appearances, he featured 21 times, thus averaging a goal contribution every time he stepped onto the pitch. It should be mentioned that eight of those contributions - two four-goal hauls - came across two appearances. But the point is, the 37-year-old was one of the best strikers in the league last season, playing so well in the opening half of the campaign that he even earned a Socceroos recall for the Asian Cup, something many felt was not possible after his brief inaugural call-up in March 2022.
So how come, a month or so into 2024/25, do we look at a situation where Fornaroli has seemingly become the third-choice option at Victory? Surely, with his previous season's numbers, the Uruguayan-born forward was a shoo-in to continue leading the line for the Vuck?
Much change occurred at Victory in the off-season, headlined by Patrick Kisnorbo replacing Tony Popovic as the club's new head coach. From the outside looking in, Kisnorbo's arrival has been the primary catalyst for Fornaroli's axing from the starting line-up. Not only in his preference to prioritise minutes for the two other out-and-out strikers in the squad—Nikos Vergos and Jing Reec—but also the fact that these two strikers were signed in the past off-season, coinciding with Kisnorbo's arrival.
Why did the club need to bring in an additional two strikers when they already had one of the best in the league?
Nikos Vergos and Jing Reec are ahead of Fornaroli on the current Melbourne Victory strikers pecking order. (Images: Brock Pearson Photography (top), Harley Appezzato (bottom))
The first part of the answer to that question revolves around Kisnorbo and the underlying narrative that he may not feel Fornaroli is suitable to his style of play. As we have seen in the Melbourne Derby, throughout Victory's 2-1 win over Macarthur, and in the first half against Wellington, Kisnorbo, as he did at Melbourne City, continues to emphasise an intense style underpinned by aggressive pressing out of possession, which his attacking players lead.
The easy (and somewhat lazy) analysis here is that Fornaroli, at 37, is too old and thus lacks the energy levels to provide such high-octane pressing from the front every week. In truth, one of Fornaroli's underrated strengths throughout his time down under has been his work rate off the ball, best exemplified during his first couple of seasons with Melbourne City and when he led the line for Popovic at Perth Glory.
That's an opinion based on an eye test. But even a deep dive into the analytics, including during his time at Victory, backs up the claim that Fornaroli should be well suited to Kisnorbo's style. Let's look at three statistics that could indicate a striker's pressing abilities: possession won in the final third, recoveries (an action that ends a possession for the opposition team), and interceptions (a statistic important for pressing as it indicates an ability to win the ball from cutting off passing lanes).
Fornaroli has won possession in the final third roughly once per 90 minutes on average (0.99) across his past five seasons in the A-League Men, averaged 3.38 recoveries per 90, and 0.32 interceptions per 90. Outside of the recoveries, those numbers are nothing to shout about. But when compared to Victory's other two strikers, Fornaroli stacks up well. So well that even if Kisnorbo has reservations about Fornaroli's suitability, the striker can surely find minutes with regular cameos off the bench at a minimum.
Nikos Vergos regularly played in the Greek Super League last season but only won possession in the final third at a rate of 0.43 per 90, had much fewer 1.83 recoveries, and an even lower 0.24 interceptions. Bringing Jing Reec into this conversation too, who it should be said played only 598 minutes at the Central Coast Mariners last season, he won possession in the final third at a very low 0.15 per 90. But he fared slightly better than Vergos in recoveries at 1.96 (though this number is crucially well below Fornaroli). So far in 2024/25, Vergos has registered four recoveries and, somewhat shockingly, has only won the ball once in the final third across his five appearances. Reec, although ahead of Fornaroli in the current pecking order, still has not played enough to draw any substantial data.
It's important to mention that pressing is much more than just these three metrics. Further, an action like a striker forcing a defender into an errant pass intercepted by one of his teammates has no statistical significance for said striker. However, that is undoubtedly something Kisnorbo would value. The eye test with Vergos does not really back up some of the statistics presented; he seems more than capable of leading the Victory press.
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But it might be in possession where Kisnorbo does not see Fornaroli as a suitable fit. As we have seen throughout his time in Australia, Fornaroli is adept at dropping deeper to receive the ball with his back to goal and draw fouls through his elite ability to shield off opposing defenders.
But let's consider Victory's current 3-4-3 shape in possession. The central striker must stay high and stretch the opponent's defensive line to create space for the two attacking midfielders in the half-spaces (primarily Reno Piscopo and Zinédine Machach at the moment). From that standpoint, Vergos seems a better fit for the current system than Fornaroli, but make no mistake, the Greek forward needs to start hitting the net, particularly as a Visa player.
Additionally, a recent piece on aleagues.com.au revealed that the club recruited Vergos with vetting using the platform Traits Insights, which allows clubs to identify players that fit the type of profile they are looking for. It seems clear that Victory decided this off-season to hitch their wagon to Vergos as their new number nine.
But will the situation change? When asked following the Round 4 win over Brisbane whether it is a challenge to keep Fornaroli invested due to his continual absence, Kisnorbo was pretty diplomatic.
"Not really. At the end of the day, players have decisions and they can act the way they want. But to be fair, he's been really good, he's been engaged, he's been working really hard," the Victory head coach said.
"Unfortunately, he was left out today, but it doesn't mean anything; it's just a game, things change. In pre-season, we looked at a few things, and then Bruno started Round 1. Things change in football very quickly."
Well, a guy who has scored 107 goals in the competition will undoubtedly hope change is swift, whether at Victory or by trying something new. Kisnorbo's comment that "players have decisions" was also somewhat unprompted, and it felt as if he was alluding to the fact that Fornaroli can leave if he likes. Maybe not, but it was an odd phrase to include in a response to a question about a delicate situation. It should be noted here that Fornaroli started in Round 1 against the Central Coast Mariners, was on the bench for Round 2's Melbourne Derby, and almost equalised against Wellington last weekend in a promising late cameo.
Fornaroli doesn't seem to be apart of Patrick Kisnorbo's plans at Melbourne Victory. (Image: Harley Appezzato)
Having attended last Sunday's 1-0 loss to the Phoenix, I asked Kisnorbo post-match whether Fornaroli's positive impact off the bench would lead to more minutes.
"With the Bruno situation, I know everyone talks about it, and it's a narrative that you guys are trying to write, but at the end of the day, Bruno is here," Kisnorbo said.
"He'll play when I think it's best for the team and when he's ready. I know he was the top goal scorer last year, and it's a new season this year. So look, he has to wait sometimes, a bit like everyone else.
"It's one of those things that I need to pick a team that I think is ready and available to win the game."
Well, yep, here we are writing the narrative. So clearly, Fornaroli was not suitable for the team "ready and available to win" against Wellington, even though many of the first-half chances Victory would go on to create (10 shots, two on target, and one big chance) were ideal for a striker of his quality. Odd.
Kisnorbo is undoubtedly a manager who sticks to his guns and can be stubborn, not necessarily in a negative way, when it comes to his approach. As long as Victory is in contention with Vergos leading the line and Reec as the understudy, it is highly unlikely that Kisnorbo will change to accommodate someone with an impressive CV. As he said last Sunday, Kisnorbo does not "pick on names."
So, let's fast-forward to the future. We're now at New Year's Day, and Victory has just edged Auckland 2-1 away from home for their sixth win of the season, sitting equal top of the table. Another match has come where Fornaroli has either been unused or left out of the squad altogether and with the transfer window open again, it is time for him to seek a move away. Where should he go?
A possible solution recently outlined in Robbie Slater and Marco Monteverde's 'The Tackle' in News Corp publications was a return to Melbourne City. That's an interesting one.
Fornaroli returning to City in their current state makes much sense on the pitch. Although Aurelio Vidmar's side has started 2024/25 well on paper with three wins from four games and has even marginally outperformed their Expected Goals (xG) figure (which was certainly not the case last season), the eye test suggests they are still lacking a lethal finisher. Jamie Maclaren still needs to be replaced.
Further, Andrew Nabbout will not return to the pitch this campaign; Max Caputo is still recovering from a broken ankle that has kept him sidelined for the start of the season; injuries have plagued young Arion Sulemani, and Medin Memeti, who just netted his first A-League Men goal against Perth, has only made two appearances in the domestic competition.
City's plan may be to continue to trust young Memeti with the starting role until Caputo returns and then hand the car keys to the 19-year-old talent who already had a brief period displacing Maclaren in the starting line-up last season. It would be a lot of trust being placed on a lot of inexperience for a club that holds championship aspirations each year. Sulemani gives Vidmar a third striking option alongside Caputo and Memeti. But again, he has made only three senior appearances to date.
So, Fornaroli is a solution, as City would be bringing in a known quantity at this level, someone who arguably offers a better all-round game than their previous talisman, Maclaren, and a striker who perfectly fits Vidmar's need for a poacher guaranteed to make the most of the good chances the side often creates. A rebuttal here would be that Memeti or Caputo need minutes to become top strikers. But Melbourne City are not really in a position to wait for results after their subpar season in 2023/24.
But the factors in such a deal extend beyond the pitch. Just over five years ago, Fornaroli left on bad terms with the Melbourne City faithful when he departed for Perth Glory. To then go on to join the club's biggest rival only made relations worse. It is unlikely the fanbase would welcome back the 37-year-old with open arms. If he did make the return, Fornaroli would hope to hit the ground running immediately and remind his former supporters of his quality.
Another new club for Fornaroli, the Central Coast Mariners, was recently proposed by Sydney Morning Herald sports reporter Vince Rugari on the Total A-Leagues show with Tommy Oar.
As Oar pointed out, Fornaroli would solve the Mariners' current issue: scoring goals. Mark Jackson's side, who we must remember started a treble-winning campaign last season with four consecutive league losses, has looked somewhat toothless to start 2024/25. Although they have scored eight goals across five ACL Elite matches—a decent return—that has barely translated in the league, with a measly three goals so far.
Jackson also seems unsure of the best way to use Alou Kuol and Ryan Edmondson, his two main striking options, likely due to neither proving they should be the undisputed number one striker at the club. Edmondson can at least point to his heroic brace in the Grand Final last season; Kuol's recent body of work leaves much to be desired. Jackson, who still has faith in both players, even said following last Friday's F3 Derby win that "there's no hiding from it; they haven't scored enough goals."
Although the Mariners lack a goalscorer, it has not been for want of trying. Central Coast is creating an average of 1.42 xG per 90, which is only 0.08 lower than Fornaroli's Victory, underlining the need for a finisher. A finisher who just scored 18 goals in this league last season? Hmm.
Other options for Fornaroli, looking at their situations purely from an on-field perspective, include Brisbane and Newcastle, two teams also needing a reliable goalscorer. Now, before all the Thomas Waddingham fanboys come at me, he's an excellent talent, and Rafael Struick also looks to have some promise. But a Fornaroli could elevate what is a mediocre squad on paper.
Again, there is the counterargument that in a league that does not give young Australian strikers many opportunities, why would Roar sign a veteran to halt their promising talent's progress? But they also need to be careful about being in a situation where Waddingham is shouldering almost all of the responsibility when it comes to goalscoring.
Newcastle is in a similar situation. However, in their attack, almost all the personnel are too young to be relied upon every week, hence the inconsistent output from Rob Stanton's side. A particular Brazilian Visa signing, who was likely brought in to help with this issue, is not doing so.
Rob Stanton noted the value of experienced players following Newcastle's F3 Derby loss to the Mariners - could Fornaroli be one they add in January? (Image: Brock Pearson Photography)
We should mention with these two clubs above that it is possible neither can afford Fornaroli's wages, thus crossing their names off this list anyway.
Finally, that recent The Tackle piece also reported that the Western Sydney Wanderers had approached Victory about the possibility of swapping Swedish striker Marcus Antonsson for Fornaroli. It added that Kisnorbo was not interested in entertaining that approach, which is understandable. It may have been a Hail Mary from the Wanderers, but why would Victory swap a proven goalscorer in this league for a player who has consistently proven unreliable in front of goal? It's not like the Wanderers need another quality forward anyway; they have one of the best attacks in the league as is.
Nonetheless, if they are not already, clubs will watch the Fornaroli situation closely to see if the striker will start seeing the pitch regularly at Victory again. If not, one of the league's sharpshooters will surely be moving soon, as early as the January window.
On paper, there are few clear-cut options available for El Tuna elsewhere in the domestic competition. But make no mistake: If Melbourne Victory cut ties with Fornaroli, he would be entering his next stop with a major chip on his shoulder.
The question remains as to who could and would take on his services.
Statistics sourced from FotMob and FootyStats.
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