After achieving a historic fourth place at the last edition and famously reaching the semi-finals of last year’s Women's World Cup, expectations surrounding the Matildas are high heading into the Olympics as fans look to this tournament as the team’s best chance to get a medal. The first challenge in the way of that is a formidable Group B, containing three teams that all pose strong albeit differing threats to Australia. So, what should fans be looking out for and expect from the three group-stage matches? Front Page Football looks in-depth at the Matildas' fellow competitors to see what Tony Gustavsson's side is facing in France.
The Matildas will be looking to go a step further than they did at Tokyo in 2021 (Image: Ann Odong/Football Australia)
Germany
First up for the Matildas are eight-time European champions Germany. While their 2023 World Cup campaign was lacklustre, they have since won 10 of their last 14 games. Over the last twelve months, they have beaten quality opponents such as Denmark and the Netherlands and finished third in the UEFA Nations League.
A striking difference in their recent performances from what Australian fans may have become accustomed to during the World Cup has been a lower reliance on star forward Alex Popp, who has taken up a bit-part role in their latest matches.
Bayern Munich forwards Lea Schüller and Klara Bühl have taken on more of the attacking burden for the side and have added dynamism in this area. In an attacking sense, Germany looks to push more options into the box when the ball is delivered from wide areas. They also have quick players in these areas and attack with an intelligence that sees them regularly find space in the penalty area.
Lea Schüller will be a key player for Germany at the Olympics. (Image: DFB)
However, what has let them down in the final third is how unreliable they can be in front of goal. Across their last four games, they have scored ten goals, which is a good return on surface level. However, in those games, they have averaged 29 shots, including 24 against Iceland in a match where they remained scoreless. Minimising chances for Germany will be key, as they have proven they are not the type of side that can snatch a win off few opportunities.
They are also susceptible defensively. On multiple occasions, the side has succumbed to opposition pressure, a critical factor in their recent loss to Iceland. Set-pieces also look to be a weakness. But star midfielder Lena Oberdorf's ACL injury is the major hindrance to their chances of success at the Olympics.
The Matildas have only beaten Germany once in the five times the teams have met, at a friendly tournament in China in 2005. The most recent match between the two was in 2021, Tony Gustavsson’s debut as Matildas manager, where Germany won 5-2.
While Germany could well be the strongest team in this group, with strengths that the Matildas can struggle against, there are weaknesses Australia has the potential and ability to exploit.
Zambia
Zambia will go into the Olympics as the lowest-ranked side in the tournament. While in terms of stature, they are at a considerable disadvantage to other sides, their team has talented individuals capable of spearheading them to shock results.
Barbra Banda is their most crucial player. A striker currently plying her trade for Orlando Pride in the National Women's Soccer League (NWSL), Banda has scored over a quarter of Zambia’s goals in the last 12 months. Combine this trend with the exploits of fellow NWSL-based Racheal Kundananji, and the duo are responsible for almost half of the side's attacking output.
Barbra Banda scored in Zambia's win over Morocco that sealed Olympics qualification. (Image: Sports Illustrated)
As a squad, Zambia lack technical quality and tend to rely on physical presence to assert themselves into games. Their centre-backs can wilt under pressure, and when opponents move the ball forward quickly and use speed to get in behind.
On a surface level, this summation may sound ideal for a world-class side like the Matildas can be on their day, and maybe even a tad disrespectful to Zambia. But it is important to remember that the Matildas have struggled in this type of game time and time again. The side tends to get disorientated in games against less technical opponents.
The Matildas have only faced African opponents twice since beating Zimbabwe at the 2016 Olympics: a 4-0 friendly victory over South Africa and a shock 3-2 loss to Nigeria at last year's World Cup. The memories of the latter should serve as a reminder not to take such teams lightly.
While they are the tournament's underdog, Zambia enters the Olympics under a cloud of controversy. Head coach Bruce Mwape has been accused of sexual misconduct against his players during last year's World Cup, as well as against a FIFA contractor. While the matter is still under investigation, he was initially denied a visa to enter France before an appeal was overturned on the grounds that the Zambia FA did not have time to source a replacement so close to the tournament. He was granted a visa on strict conditions, including the assurance that he would not have private contact with any players.
USA
The USA is a familiar foe for the Matildas; however, this fixture has historically been one-sided. The Matildas have won just once in the 13 matches they have played against each other.
However, the two sides have not faced off since 2021; since then, the USA has seen a decline in stature. They are currently ranked fifth in the world, their worst-ever position, and between 2023 and 2024, they are averaging their worst goals per game average since 2009, with 2.1 goals per game. While these statistics are impressive in isolation and show historically how high the USWNT's standards are, the fact that they are experiencing a lull should not be ignored.
The USA fell well short of expectations at last year's Women's World Cup. (Image: ESPN)
Emma Hayes recently took over as manager, her first national team job after spending 12 years with Chelsea in her home country of England. She got her break in management in the USA and would have been acutely aware of the country's sports landscape before taking on this role. But naturally, fans can expect teething issues as the squad becomes accustomed to a new style.
This side is still performing incredibly well in the defensive third. The USA has only conceded ten goals across 30 games in the last 18 months, keeping 23 clean sheets. They are yet to concede under Hayes. Australia proved in their recent ‘B’ friendly with Canada that they can still be clinical when creating relatively few chances, a trait they must take into this match.
One can argue that the USA's recent matches have left a lot to be desired, particularly the frustrating 0-0 draw with Costa Rica. However, a side that contains the likes of Sophia Smith, Lindsey Horan, Rose Lavelle, and Trinity Rodman, to name a few, should always be respected. At the surface level, this Olympics could be the best time to face the USA in its history, but it is still a fixture you do not take lightly.
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While each team the Matildas will face has dangers the side needs to be wary of, none of their opponents are going into the Olympics in a smooth state either. The Matildas have been able to lift their game to another level come major global tournaments under Gustavsson, and should that trend continue, fans can expect to see the side well beyond the group stage.
Australia's Olympics campaign will begin against Germany in Marseille tomorrow at 3 am AEST, live on Channel 9, 9Now, and Stan Sport.
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