On Saturday night, Adelaide United suffered a shock home defeat to the Newcastle Jets, their second in February and one which now leaves them five points adrift of Auckland atop the A-League Men table. Christian Marchetti writes that while there is no need to panic over two losses in three games, the team's profligacy has been notable in its defeats.
Adelaide United have lost two of their last three games. (Image: Brock Pearson Photography)
Adelaide United have had a fantastic 2024/25 season thus far, sitting in second on the A-League Men's table and performing well above the pre-season expectations of many pundits and fans. However, each week, their overperformance has led to greater expectations to keep winning, none more so than the expectation that the Reds would comfortably cast aside a Newcastle Jets side sitting well outside the top six.
The Jets did enter Saturday night's clash off the back of a statement 3-0 win over Melbourne Victory the week before, yet they had not beaten Adelaide in three meetings while being quite abject when the two sides met in December at McDonald Jones Stadium.
While Rob Stanton's side was undoubtedly improved this time, Carl Veart's team should have buried their opponents inside the opening half-hour at Coopers Stadium. Countless chances fell the way of Stefan Mauk, Dylan Pierias, Archie Goodwin, and even defensive midfielder Jay Barnett as the Reds cut open the visitors at will but somehow came away without anything to show for it on the scoreboard.
Then, in the 37th minute, a moment of top quality from Japanese winger Kota Mizunuma punished the hosts, as his pinpoint cross found Lachie Rose's head, the striker obliging with a superb headed finish into Ethan Cox's top left corner. In a promising sign, Adelaide didn't let the opening goal affect them too much, picking up where they left off by keeping the Jets on the back foot to end the half. Finally, Mauk produced a decisive bit of end product to equalise on the stroke of the interval.
Adelaide's second-half performance was not as dominant as their first. Yet, plenty of opportunities were still created - the Reds creating 1.39 Expected Goals (xG) from 15 shots after producing 1.49 from 11 in the first period - but again, they weren't converted. Meanwhile, defensively (which I will get into later), they were poor. They allowed the Jets to create dangerous openings in transition, one of which was capitalised on by winger Clayton Taylor in the 55th minute, albeit questionably handled by Cox, and proving to be the winner.
It's the second time in three games the Reds' prolificacy in front of goal has cost them points after poor finishing (of course, coupled with poor defending) hurt them in the 4-1 defeat to Sydney FC; striker Goodwin squandering two big chances when the score was still level at 0-0 in that particular game. In both games, had they deservedly broken the deadlock, the Reds could easily be sat right alongside Auckland at the league's summit. Dominating at 0-0 and taking an early lead is far more critical than failing to capitalise while being 1-0 down, for example, due to the impact it can have on the overall dynamic of the game.
It's not as if Adelaide has not been clinical this season, either, which is one of the reasons why they are in the position they are. In fact, in the four games that preceded the Sydney defeat, the Reds were extremely clinical, scoring nine goals from 5.19 xG created across matches against Macarthur, Wellington, Melbourne Victory, and Auckland. Per FootyStats, they are still one of the most clinical teams in the competition, outperforming their xG per 90 more than any other team.
So, where has the sudden inability to take chances come from in the two recent losses? Well, as we know, players miss chances from time to time, that can happen. Every team has bad days at the office regarding finishing chances. A counter would be that the team currently sitting top, Auckland, is arguably the only team in the competition that does not have underwhelming finishing days - a statistical look into Steve Corica's side suggests that if they create enough to warrant one goal, they will score one; two goals, they will score two, and so on. Auckland has the smallest margin in the league between their xG per 90 and goals scored per 90 at +0.03. How much they create equates to how many they score.
What's the difference between Adelaide and Auckland; why can't the Reds be clinical every week? It can be argued that Adelaide, with players such as Archie Goodwin, Yaya Dukuly, and even Dylan Pierias, who at 24 still has room to develop as a player (which he has already a bit this season), has a squad containing a youthfulness that means inconsistencies will creep in throughout a season. It's what has made their season thus far even more impressive - many of Adelaide's younger players to this point have been super consistent.
Archie Goodwin has been a superb signing for Adelaide United, with eight goals in 16 games this season. (Image: Brock Pearson Photography)
But take Goodwin as an example; inconsistency, particularly as it pertains to finishing chances, is only natural for a 20-year-old striker, and there's almost an unwritten law of averages that can be applied in these situations. Akin to how the percentages of an elite three-point shooter in basketball even out over a season, finishing chances for a youngster like Goodwin will likely have ups and downs over 26 games. The former Jet has been super clinical for many of his 16 games this season. Now he's going through a slight dip, and if we trust his ability, he will likely bounce back to end the season and re-establish that clinical edge.
Of course, it is not just Goodwin who will be disappointed with his end product in the defeats against Sydney and Newcastle; the end product of others has dipped lately.
Carl Veart's utilisation of Pierias as a right wing-back has been one of the keys to the success of Adelaide's new 3-4-3 shape in possession this season, leading to some putting the former Wanderer in Socceroos conversations. Pierias, to his credit, did score in the Sydney defeat (albeit an effort Harrison Devenish-Meares should have saved), and his cross led to Mauk's goal on Saturday. But there's no doubt his end product has dropped off in recent weeks. Shockingly, only two of Pierias' 13 crosses were accurate across the two recent defeats.
Elsewhere in attack, Mauk will be the first to admit that he could have easily had a hat trick on the weekend with the promising positions he found himself in. Zach Clough is quietly on a bit of a scoring drought, having not found the net in six games. Both attacking midfielders have had excellent campaigns to date. But in a team built with that blend of youth and experience, it's crucial that they have consistent output as an experienced duo, especially if Adelaide harbours ambitions of being a serious championship contender this season.
Another member of the attacking unit, dropped on the weekend for Dukuly, is Ben Folami, who again did not offer enough in his 20 or so minutes off the bench. At the point in the game he was introduced, Adelaide required a live wire who could beat their opposing defender to create a gap in the Jets' defence and ultimately change the pace and rhythm of the game. Folami finished without one dribble attempt, let alone a successful one, and failed to inject renewed energy from the left side of the attack.
Ben Folami is still without a goal for Adelaide United after 14 appearances for the club. (Image: Will Zhao)
We can discuss and dissect the performance of the attackers in these two defeats ad nauseam, but what about the defence or lack thereof? Making the Auckland comparison again, Corica's side can make up for any wasteful performances by, in all honesty, arguably being one of the most well-drilled and well-organised defensive units we've seen in the league's history. Even if they have poor finishing in front of goals, they can still grind out a result by being incredibly difficult to break down at the other end.
For Adelaide, defensive resilience has been a big discussion point throughout the Carl Veart era. Although this area has improved dramatically this season, it's been found wanting in the two defeats, and failing to keep the opposition out has led to the missed chances being brutally punished. A combination of availability and a potential tactical tweak by Sydney and Newcastle to exploit Adelaide's defensive shape contributed to the diminished defensive output in both games.
Although Ryan Kitto certainly has his flaws defensively in the role he plays as a left-sided centre-back in possession and left-back out of possession for Adelaide, the captain not playing in both losses feels telling, mainly because the Reds arguably don't have a like-for-like replacement elsewhere in the senior squad for him.
Fabian Talladira was trusted to play the left-sided role in the Sydney defeat, which was a real baptism of fire, and the Sky Blues targeted the youngster, with both of their first two goals originating from his side. Against Newcastle, with Talladira away on Young Socceroos duty and Kitto pulling up sore in the warm-up, it was Ethan Alagich's turn to deputise. He struggled there defensively, with Veart admitting post-game that he was caught out at times with some "indecision", which is natural for a player who is a midfielder by trade.
Additionally, Saturday was probably the first time Panagiotis Kikianis' absence was truly felt, with Isaias, who covered the centre of the back line again alongside Bart Vriends, being given the run around a bit by Newcastle's attack in the second half, admittedly after marshalling Lachie Rose well for most of the first period.
Vriends, meanwhile, also had a poor second half by his standards. He was probably given the run around by one player, as Clayton Taylor undoubtedly got the better of the Dutch defender in a few situations. In the 50th minute, Vriends cynically picked up a yellow card for lazily fouling the winger as he cut inside. Minutes later, the Jets created the same scenario again; Taylor, this time, pushed the ball around Vriends, leaving him behind with his blistering speed and going on to score past Cox at the near post.
Interestingly, when looking at the Newcastle winner on Saturday and many of the six goals Adelaide conceded across the two recent losses, most have originated from wide areas, and one wonders whether opposing teams are slowly finding some gaps in the Reds' defensive structure.
Considering that Adelaide build-up in a 3-4-3 shape, it means that often, when the opposition wins the ball back, they can spring forward quickly by exploiting the space behind the wing-backs (Pierias on the right, Dukuly/Folami on the left) as they take up such advanced positions in possession. It seems both Sydney and Newcastle identified this weakness and benefitted from it significantly.
READ MORE ON FPF
ADELAIDE UNITED WOMEN: "A fair result" - Adrian Stenta content as Reds and Canberra play out an entertaining draw
MATILDAS: "You always want to win" - Ellie Carpenter outlines squad's ambitions ahead of SheBelieves Cup debut
It does not mean Adelaide should discard a system that has suited them well all season. If anything, as Veart echoed in his post-match presser on Saturday, it means Adelaide's on-ball pressure higher up the pitch needs to be better so they don't allow any opposing counter-attacks to gather momentum.
What would also be ideal is re-establishing that clinical edge to kill off games early. But that, I guess, is the challenge for the Reds moving forward: not allowing poor finishing to affect defensive resilience and vice-versa. But that certainly is not an easy progression to make. Should they be able to do it, though, it could elevate what has already been a very positive season for the side.
Statistics sourced from FotMob and Sofascore.
Click here to read more of Front Page Football's coverage of the A-Leagues!
コメント